AI is going to replace most jobs and good riddance
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Dunno about you fren, but I kinda like not starving.
@BroDrillard @Griffith don't worry, when excess human labor is no longer needed we will all be slowly drafted into a Gladiator or Hunger Games style death match (depending on region) to appease the overlords. Winners get to eat the losers.
Whew... I was almost worried here for a moment.
AI will not replace any real jobs.
@Griffith AI will replace most jobs because most jobs require a business degree and knowledge of Microsoft office and are functionally useless
@Griffith Email jobs are going to have a very bad time
Stronk, independent, career foids most affected.
Real jobs only make up 20% of the job market max.
@Shadowman311 I can't imagine accountants existing in 10 years.
Fable came out in July, the same month as K3 and Sol. Three months later we have Opus 5.5, Astra, and K3.1. The leap in capabilities in 2-3 months should shatter anyone's previously held expectations. DeepSeek v4.1 1017 is probably responsible for the surge in critical vulnerabilities and exposures this month, given the timing. Adoption is a slower phenomenon because it's social, but I think by next year we'll have another surge of adoption like we did with the advent of agentic coding this year, and labs will continue to rock serious fields in the same manner they've been rocking mathematics this year, and software in years past.
In other words, I don't think most people have a moat over 10 years, and no one has a moat over 20 years, and both those estimates are likely unreasonably conservative. My honest opinion is both those estimates can be cut by half.
Fable came out in July, the same month as K3 and Sol. Three months later we have Opus 5.5, Astra, and K3.1. The leap in capabilities in 2-3 months should shatter anyone's previously held expectations. DeepSeek v4.1 1017 is probably responsible for the surge in critical vulnerabilities and exposures this month, given the timing. Adoption is a slower phenomenon because it's social, but I think by next year we'll have another surge of adoption like we did with the advent of agentic coding this year, and labs will continue to rock serious fields in the same manner they've been rocking mathematics this year, and software in years past.
In other words, I don't think most people have a moat over 10 years, and no one has a moat over 20 years, and both those estimates are likely unreasonably conservative. My honest opinion is both those estimates can be cut by half.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 real 
@Griffith @Shadowman311
https://archive.org/details/miya-essays/mode/1up
scanned this a little while ago, just felt like linking it in this thread
@Griffith You're assuming our power infrastructure and compute capacity can keep up with demand, which it can't and it won't. Everytime a new data center gets announced the local power company shits themselves and for good reason. This "revolution" will end because we just do not possess the raw materials and energy capacity to keep up with it.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 accountants can still exist because there's no mechanical test for an allocation of money being wise, what few mechanical tests there are have already been automated. Programming has *enormous* advantages that are also nearly completely unique, that make AI useful for it.
When time travel's invented and the universe can be rolled back upon you losing money, and claude can spend a few tokens to drive that with a cli tool, not only accounts but also novelists and everything else can killed as a job. "Grok, give me a best-seller horror novel for women" can keep rolling the universe back until a book actually becomes a best-seller.
When time travel's invented and the universe can be rolled back upon you losing money, and claude can spend a few tokens to drive that with a cli tool, not only accounts but also novelists and everything else can killed as a job. "Grok, give me a best-seller horror novel for women" can keep rolling the universe back until a book actually becomes a best-seller.
@Griffith We also don't have the power capacity for 100% EV either, all these plans are bottlenecked and impossible because boomers got scared of nuclear power 60 years ago, plus one for the boomers I guess
@Griffith Also SMRs are not viable, the instant one of them fucks up they'll get regulated out of existence
@Shadowman311 @Griffith SMRs aren't a silver bullet, but they have federal protection. We no longer have the forges for monolithic reactor vessels so welded SMRs are more or less all we can do in the nuclear arena. Less efficient due to the lower possible delta T but the only bandaid we can put on our current energy crisis
The bigger problem imo is transmission gear
The bigger problem imo is transmission gear
@Griffith @Shadowman311 well i can
i can also imagine them still printing out paper checks, going around the office tracking down one or more executives to sign them, and putting them in the mail.
quickbooks will just have some stupid AI features nobody asked for or cares about.
i can also imagine them still printing out paper checks, going around the office tracking down one or more executives to sign them, and putting them in the mail.
quickbooks will just have some stupid AI features nobody asked for or cares about.
@Shadowman311 If the US AI project does get hard bottlenecked by infrastructure in 2028 with no feasible solution, and RSI or the impact of RSI becomes infeasible because of that, we'll still have good models. The Chinese will win the AI race, but the revolution as a whole will be able to leapfrog the American bottleneck. It won't end there, in other words.
@Shadowman311 @Griffith @Paultron whoops, a brown truck driver wearing flip flops and not speaking a word of english accidentally your multi million dollar transformer with an 18 month lead time
@Griffith @Shadowman311 I doubt it. Accounting isn't about doing math and being a mechanical counter of money, at the highest level. Accountants are legally liable agents. A corporation offloading that legal accountability and legal firewall that protects the company to an LLM is retarded.
Most small businesses already do software accounting by owner so the legal burden was already on them so nothing would really change if Joe's Plumbing used LLM accounting, assuming it is legal, however.
Most small businesses already do software accounting by owner so the legal burden was already on them so nothing would really change if Joe's Plumbing used LLM accounting, assuming it is legal, however.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 likewise the internet's still around after the dotcom bubble. Likewise people (faggots) are still using homes as investments after the subprime mortgage crisis - and thanks to Obama, the same financial schemes are all back again and will be part of the current bubble collapsing.
That inflation siphons money from old useless boomers, making them eat cat food, to the benefit of innovators who can force a bunch of innovation which persists even after a crash, is an argument for the current system. It's nicer than forcing innovation with war, right?
That inflation siphons money from old useless boomers, making them eat cat food, to the benefit of innovators who can force a bunch of innovation which persists even after a crash, is an argument for the current system. It's nicer than forcing innovation with war, right?
@Shadowman311 @Paultron Structurally, the purpose of SMRs is to power the data centers into the 2030's, because the bottlenecks will appear before then and everyone knows it. Musk knows it too, which is the aim of his datacenters in space plan. By 2030, realistically the Chinese surge ahead of us in infrastructure, but that's the plan if the race has to go beyond the next two years, which is what Dario is trying to sidestep. Dario is an "RSI soon" guy. Transmission will be a problem for communities around the SMRs, not the data centers themselves.
@Griffith I just want it to do dishes and laundry before it makes me poor
@Griffith @Shadowman311 if the end result of the AI race is "destroy everyone's livelihood" then what's the point in winning it?
@wgiwf @Shadowman311 Reducing the accountant to a meatshield basically only requires someone off the street and is solely a compliance requirement that will be worked around once the position is completely redundant. There's not an infinite shelf-life on that role.
@genmaicha @Shadowman311 Getting rid of livelihoods and figuring out what's better than working two part time jobs to pay rent.
@genmaicha @Shadowman311 Or becoming biofuel maybe, lots of possibilities in the future, I'm rooting for the good ones.
@Shadowman311 @Paultron @Griffith Believe it or not, the transmission bottleneck is actually going to benefit SMR development bigly, and quite soon. Ink is already dry on a contract between one of the big data center operators and an SMR builder in final approval stages for commercial SMRs. I can only speculate on how the deal actually came about but I can tell on the why:
It's been common practice for data center operators to subsidize entire transmission stations in exchange for minimum capacity guarantees, but lately operators have been reneging on fairly standard deals in the final stages of approval, killing some of these infrastructure projects which usually wind up bringing tangible long term benefits to small municipalities with floundering industry. Grid operators are effectively vaporizing contracts with the support and protection of the local governments thanks to the "We don't want Data Centers!" cities, who are very soon going to be getting exactly what they're asking for.
It's been common practice for data center operators to subsidize entire transmission stations in exchange for minimum capacity guarantees, but lately operators have been reneging on fairly standard deals in the final stages of approval, killing some of these infrastructure projects which usually wind up bringing tangible long term benefits to small municipalities with floundering industry. Grid operators are effectively vaporizing contracts with the support and protection of the local governments thanks to the "We don't want Data Centers!" cities, who are very soon going to be getting exactly what they're asking for.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 An "AI" cannot sign an affidavit under penalty of perjury. Human accountability is going nowhere. Also numerous certifications and legal requirements are needed for accountancy. A "meatshield" is very inaccurate to describe a job which often interacts with the legal system.
@wgiwf @Shadowman311 This is essentially pushing back the question of “is AI good enough” one more step.
@wgiwf @Griffith @Shadowman311 theres a gen x shitposter accountant who rants all the time about the corporate accounting firms outsourcing to india and suggests self-employment with a website that just says "entirely ran by americains"
@Griffith @Shadowman311 Corperate jobs will die hopefully, cleaning up the mess of boomers left behind: paving roads that last exactly for as many years as they are alive, going into failed cities like Detroit, taking those 1$ houses into livable states, the black mold, rediscovering how a legal system should work; etc.
When the real work gets paid whats its worth, there will be allot to do.
When the real work gets paid whats its worth, there will be allot to do.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 Can an AI testify in court is not a question of "is it good enough", as an accountant may need to do. An AI is not capable of testifying by nature of it not being an entity with its own memories that come from its own observation separate from information fed to it, let alone its non-personhood. Please stop confusing Sci-Fi fantasies of AI with what an LLM is.
@wgiwf @Shadowman311 This is all just pushing back the question. If the accountant becomes an AI supervisor the position you're describing is redundant.
@Griffith bro just wants everybody to be homeless 😭
@Shadowman311 @Griffith @Paultron There is at least one type of nuclear reactor design that literally cannot melt down. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pebble-bed_reactor#Safety
There are probably already several other types of nuclear reactor that literally cannot melt down, and there will probably be many more since there are "designs that are theoretically possible but not being actively considered or researched at present". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reactor#By_generation
Essentially, the only nuclear reactors that can melt down are the ones that produce plutonium as a byproduct, and the only reason to create a nuclear reactor that produces plutonium is to use the plutonium to create nuclear weapons. If you live near a nuclear weapon factory that happens to also produce electricity that might be dangerous, but you can choose to live near a power plant that uses a nuclear reactor without also living near a nuclear weapon factory (at least if at least one of the "safe" type of nuclear power plant was built in the last few decades).
There are probably already several other types of nuclear reactor that literally cannot melt down, and there will probably be many more since there are "designs that are theoretically possible but not being actively considered or researched at present". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_reactor#By_generation
Essentially, the only nuclear reactors that can melt down are the ones that produce plutonium as a byproduct, and the only reason to create a nuclear reactor that produces plutonium is to use the plutonium to create nuclear weapons. If you live near a nuclear weapon factory that happens to also produce electricity that might be dangerous, but you can choose to live near a power plant that uses a nuclear reactor without also living near a nuclear weapon factory (at least if at least one of the "safe" type of nuclear power plant was built in the last few decades).