AI is going to replace most jobs and good riddance
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@Griffith AI will replace most jobs because most jobs require a business degree and knowledge of Microsoft office and are functionally useless
@Shadowman311 I can't imagine accountants existing in 10 years.
Fable came out in July, the same month as K3 and Sol. Three months later we have Opus 5.5, Astra, and K3.1. The leap in capabilities in 2-3 months should shatter anyone's previously held expectations. DeepSeek v4.1 1017 is probably responsible for the surge in critical vulnerabilities and exposures this month, given the timing. Adoption is a slower phenomenon because it's social, but I think by next year we'll have another surge of adoption like we did with the advent of agentic coding this year, and labs will continue to rock serious fields in the same manner they've been rocking mathematics this year, and software in years past.
In other words, I don't think most people have a moat over 10 years, and no one has a moat over 20 years, and both those estimates are likely unreasonably conservative. My honest opinion is both those estimates can be cut by half.
Fable came out in July, the same month as K3 and Sol. Three months later we have Opus 5.5, Astra, and K3.1. The leap in capabilities in 2-3 months should shatter anyone's previously held expectations. DeepSeek v4.1 1017 is probably responsible for the surge in critical vulnerabilities and exposures this month, given the timing. Adoption is a slower phenomenon because it's social, but I think by next year we'll have another surge of adoption like we did with the advent of agentic coding this year, and labs will continue to rock serious fields in the same manner they've been rocking mathematics this year, and software in years past.
In other words, I don't think most people have a moat over 10 years, and no one has a moat over 20 years, and both those estimates are likely unreasonably conservative. My honest opinion is both those estimates can be cut by half.
@Griffith You're assuming our power infrastructure and compute capacity can keep up with demand, which it can't and it won't. Everytime a new data center gets announced the local power company shits themselves and for good reason. This "revolution" will end because we just do not possess the raw materials and energy capacity to keep up with it.
@Shadowman311 If the US AI project does get hard bottlenecked by infrastructure in 2028 with no feasible solution, and RSI or the impact of RSI becomes infeasible because of that, we'll still have good models. The Chinese will win the AI race, but the revolution as a whole will be able to leapfrog the American bottleneck. It won't end there, in other words.
@Griffith @Shadowman311 if the end result of the AI race is "destroy everyone's livelihood" then what's the point in winning it?
@genmaicha @Shadowman311 Getting rid of livelihoods and figuring out what's better than working two part time jobs to pay rent.
@genmaicha @Shadowman311 Or becoming biofuel maybe, lots of possibilities in the future, I'm rooting for the good ones.
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