Monday morning #headlines recap
More than one writer notes that the timeline of Lindsey Graham dying at home doesn’t add up and that he likely died in Kiev - perhaps at the hands of the Russians. larrycjohnson substack has the full breakdown. Hat tip to the Russians if true.
US-Iran war restarted at scale. CENTCOM confirmed fresh strike waves "to degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners"; Trump boasts "we bombed the hell out of them”.
5th Fleet HQ, Bahrain, directly hit second night running. Plume over Manama, ballistic-missile impact; "at least a dozen explosions… drone command centre destroyed, very large fires”. US casualties reported in Kuwait, figures vary. Recurring subtext: US interceptor depletion. More Iranian salvos means fewer Patriots and higher impact rates; "we are already rationing and taking direct impact”.
Strait of Hormuz shut again. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says transit "not possible," permits suspended; CENTCOM insists the waterway is open. Both sides now formally claim control. I would say the number of ships passing (only 6 on Sunday) is a good metric for who is actually in control.
Crude still trading below $75, because "there are no buyers willing to go pick up that oil inside an active war zone" - demand destruction, not a glut. Middle East exports have sat 40% below pre-war levels for six weeks while futures pretended normality.
Russia flew a Tu-214 airborne command post ("doomsday plane") and multiple flights Moscow→Tehran.
Simplicius’ take on the latest round of US military action: “The US is now trapped in this doom-loop of impotence, striking the same insignificant coastal launch sites over and over to no effect merely as a kind of writhing agony of imperial frustration. Each round just magnifies the weakness of Trump and the military.” Bonus points to Simplicius for referring to Graham as “Ladybug”.
"Carnage in the hyperscaler bond market" - GS FICC says it will be "very difficult to fund another $360bn in the next 12mo," precisely when hypers need ~$1tn. "Goldman IG desk just ended the party”. Hyperscaler capex is now 100% of cash flow; a further $1.8tn sits off-balance-sheet. Making dotcom era excesses look like child’s play.
Editor’s note: a variety of “two moar weeks” stories continue to simmer, but nothing worth reporting.
Today’s good news is summarized in the form of a meme…
BealtaineGoat