Egregoros

Monday morning #headlines recap

Bessent announces "economic D-Day" begins at dawn; presser today 1 PM ET. His own words: "the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary", objective to "sever every economic lifeline”. Iran’s response: "if the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exported, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Persian Gulf", and participation in sanctions will be read as an act of war. Analysts are saying that China’s refusal to participate will neutralize the entire initiative regardless of what other nations do. Didn’t think it was possible for Bessent to be moar ghey, but here we are.

Axios continues to be the house organ for floating bogus stories to bump the market. Their latest bit of propaganda over the weekend exclaims Hormuz traffic is up 400% and “Iran is losing its grip”, but the actual data says crossings still in the single digits and 90% below pre-February 28 numbers.

Iran's parliament speaker Ghalibaf, on the US bond market: "Importing frozen meat to fix meat prices. Okay, that might work. What's the plan for bonds, import frozen yields?" He does a little shitpoasting of his own…

Four more empty Saudi tankers (AMAD, AMJAD, SHADEN, DALIL) left the Gulf of Oman for Red Sea ports the long way around Africa. Bloomberg's version: Riyadh is shuttling millions of barrels north across the Red Sea while sending tankers thousands of miles around Africa to collect them, avoiding the narrow strait at the southern end. I’m sure the delay and the extra fuel for the ships won’t be reflected in the price at the pump….

US crude inventory down to 41 days, lowest in half a century; SPR at its lowest since 1982. Buffalo Airport runs out of jet fuel. It’s not obvious if the Buffalo incident is incompetence at the field or truly a reflection of a shit-hitting-the-fan situation.

IMF read on the fuel situation: current prices don't reflect the Middle East and Russian supply shock, SPR depletion continues into 2027, refinery outages are hitting diesel, Russia has banned fuel exports to Europe, Chinese runs stay constrained, US refiners head into maintenance, and crack spreads at records. I’ve defined crack spreads before, it’s an economic measure of barrel of oil price vs. price at the pump. I feel the need to reiterate this because of the ridiculous number of assmen on fedi.

US casualties in the Iran war reported at 774 - 18 killed, 756 wounded - per Pentagon data via WaPo. Let us hope they were largely composed of browns and sexual deviants.

Editor’s note: Russia continues to pound Ukraine via air and on the ground. The only notable story is new UK Prime Minister Burnham going to Kiev to give Zelenskyyyy a reacharound.

South Korean stocks getting dumped in the Sunday session, with an author who was previously bullish KOSPI now walking it back. Sounds like someone got Cramer’d…

“Happy Merchant” creator and political cartoonist Nick Bougas passed away over the weekend. He was 71. Clearly demonstrated the power of the meme, pressing F to pay respects.

Be sure to commemorate “Economic D Day” by poasting as many dank memes as possible frens…

Monday morning #headlines recap

More than one writer notes that the timeline of Lindsey Graham dying at home doesn’t add up and that he likely died in Kiev - perhaps at the hands of the Russians. larrycjohnson substack has the full breakdown. Hat tip to the Russians if true.

US-Iran war restarted at scale. CENTCOM confirmed fresh strike waves "to degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners"; Trump boasts "we bombed the hell out of them”.

5th Fleet HQ, Bahrain, directly hit second night running. Plume over Manama, ballistic-missile impact; "at least a dozen explosions… drone command centre destroyed, very large fires”. US casualties reported in Kuwait, figures vary. Recurring subtext: US interceptor depletion. More Iranian salvos means fewer Patriots and higher impact rates; "we are already rationing and taking direct impact”.

Strait of Hormuz shut again. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority says transit "not possible," permits suspended; CENTCOM insists the waterway is open. Both sides now formally claim control. I would say the number of ships passing (only 6 on Sunday) is a good metric for who is actually in control.

Crude still trading below $75, because "there are no buyers willing to go pick up that oil inside an active war zone" - demand destruction, not a glut. Middle East exports have sat 40% below pre-war levels for six weeks while futures pretended normality.

Russia flew a Tu-214 airborne command post ("doomsday plane") and multiple flights Moscow→Tehran.

Simplicius’ take on the latest round of US military action: “The US is now trapped in this doom-loop of impotence, striking the same insignificant coastal launch sites over and over to no effect merely as a kind of writhing agony of imperial frustration. Each round just magnifies the weakness of Trump and the military.” Bonus points to Simplicius for referring to Graham as “Ladybug”.

"Carnage in the hyperscaler bond market" - GS FICC says it will be "very difficult to fund another $360bn in the next 12mo," precisely when hypers need ~$1tn. "Goldman IG desk just ended the party”. Hyperscaler capex is now 100% of cash flow; a further $1.8tn sits off-balance-sheet. Making dotcom era excesses look like child’s play.

Editor’s note: a variety of “two moar weeks” stories continue to simmer, but nothing worth reporting.

Today’s good news is summarized in the form of a meme…