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@sun happy that iran understands its most logical military target choices in the way i did
horrified that ditto
an unknown amount (likely thousands, if not ten thousand[s]) of ukranian anti drone specialists are already on their way to the middle east. an unexpected move for me , that i didnt think about a few days ago, but i think the best move for the middle-east coalition. i couldnt think of a way to defend all the oil fields, civilian critical infrastructure (mostly desalination plants) and downtowns, but this fulfills that question for my perspective. Within a year, the US can both learn and battle-test the systems.
in 3-5 days it should be safe to estimate the scale of length for this conflict, and the possibilities of escalation to even more frontlines
lots of promises are being thrown around to do this and not do that, by both sides of the war axis, too many to be bothered to write out right now, but not too many new actions to estimate their true intent or ranges of intent
see also gay war post i made 3 days ago https://shitposter.world/notice/B3slNzqTMO5FF7X3sO for my "temu 5-star general" insights, but minus the potential for total catastrophe it seems, as the most terrible nightmare scenario for the UAE and neighbors seems it will be averted in time, and it will only be a moderate catastrophe in the post assuming conditions i implied.
horrified that ditto
an unknown amount (likely thousands, if not ten thousand[s]) of ukranian anti drone specialists are already on their way to the middle east. an unexpected move for me , that i didnt think about a few days ago, but i think the best move for the middle-east coalition. i couldnt think of a way to defend all the oil fields, civilian critical infrastructure (mostly desalination plants) and downtowns, but this fulfills that question for my perspective. Within a year, the US can both learn and battle-test the systems.
in 3-5 days it should be safe to estimate the scale of length for this conflict, and the possibilities of escalation to even more frontlines
lots of promises are being thrown around to do this and not do that, by both sides of the war axis, too many to be bothered to write out right now, but not too many new actions to estimate their true intent or ranges of intent
see also gay war post i made 3 days ago https://shitposter.world/notice/B3slNzqTMO5FF7X3sO for my "temu 5-star general" insights, but minus the potential for total catastrophe it seems, as the most terrible nightmare scenario for the UAE and neighbors seems it will be averted in time, and it will only be a moderate catastrophe in the post assuming conditions i implied.
@lebronjames75 have they gone after the desalinization plants already yet? why wouldn't that be the first thing?
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@sun yes but not with success. there is more than enough CRAM (counter rocket|artillery|missile) capabilities for the US and allies to last about a 2-4 weeks there with everything protected. the US and local countries are still as of yesterday, very successful. Iran has been attempting to hit the desalination plants so far quite a bit the last 2 or so days. AFAIK, 1 has been hit (unknown amount of damage?), out of roughly 100~ they would have to knock out.
losing over half the water desalination ability in the major cities is practically, but a technically surmountable lose condition for anyone not iran. lose oil fields as well, and its a total lose condition for the arabian peninsula countries, would probably be the biggest humanitarian crisis of the past 200 years and a great win for Iran.
hence why i think everything is fine (dubai and kuwait and oil tankers and civilians getting bomb is said by me to be OK in this specifically relative context, its still terrible of course!) for the immediate predictable future of 1 month since time frames are ok-ish for everything i see
i havent really thought about poisoning/contaminating the water in the strait used for desalination with the 500ish oil tankers in the strait though. not sure if that would work realistically. but that would be an insane maneuver if that was a feasible method + it was pulled off.
TL;DR they are trying but failing for now
losing over half the water desalination ability in the major cities is practically, but a technically surmountable lose condition for anyone not iran. lose oil fields as well, and its a total lose condition for the arabian peninsula countries, would probably be the biggest humanitarian crisis of the past 200 years and a great win for Iran.
hence why i think everything is fine (dubai and kuwait and oil tankers and civilians getting bomb is said by me to be OK in this specifically relative context, its still terrible of course!) for the immediate predictable future of 1 month since time frames are ok-ish for everything i see
i havent really thought about poisoning/contaminating the water in the strait used for desalination with the 500ish oil tankers in the strait though. not sure if that would work realistically. but that would be an insane maneuver if that was a feasible method + it was pulled off.
TL;DR they are trying but failing for now
@sun cont. gulf contaminating the water with oil probably wont work because saddam hussein back during the Iraq war already did this on a massive scale as an attempt to poison the water of the gulf countries, but installing a series of booms at the water treatment sites themselves was enough to stop it from being terrible. though attempting to blow up the oil tankers would still serve to block oil exports from the area by a significant %, just not a environmental that would one shot everyone.
update for my last post: as measured 24 hours ago, only two desalination plant ( UAE’s Fujairah F1 and kuwait's Doha West Plant) has been hit for insignificant, minor damage, as the (burning/potentially explosive) wreckage of drone(s) has landed on site after an interception.
update for my last post: as measured 24 hours ago, only two desalination plant ( UAE’s Fujairah F1 and kuwait's Doha West Plant) has been hit for insignificant, minor damage, as the (burning/potentially explosive) wreckage of drone(s) has landed on site after an interception.